| [ economics ] in KIDS 글 쓴 이(By): TACK (T@CKt@ck) 날 짜 (Date): 2006년 10월 25일 수요일 오전 12시 58분 32초 제 목(Title): Re: 주식 프로그램 캡쳐 화면 SemiConductors are cyclical stocks. Semi-Con's usually have cyclical period of 3-4 yrs. I'm not sure what methodology you used to pull that graph, but I'm not sure if this has much merits in terms of long/medium term investment. What most people make mistakes in terms of investing is that you can't get rich overnight. Such dream is the short fall of most investors who make losses. I was told by industry executive that say, out of 5 yrs, 1 yr would be most profitable, 2 yrs, break even, 2 yrs loss, usually for semicon companies. And if you look at life-cycle of chips, the half-life are becoming much shorter and shorter. A brand new chip can go through production cycle for about 2-4 years at the most. And this is usually after 1-2 years of R&D cycle. I do not know much about Hynix, but I'm not sure how much of R&D cycle they do, but they'll go through cyclical period. Same with oil industry. Since the 70's, the oil industry has seen cyclical period of about 8-10 yrs. And if you look at the stock most closely, for most of the stocks, if you buy in Nov, and sell in May, you'd be up about 10+% year over year on avg. Plug 'em in, and see. Oil prices tend to be higher in the winter months, and thus brings up the revenue/profit up for the oil companies. It's all fun and dandy playing the momentums of highs and lows, but the odds are really against you, when you can have such small impact on the market, unless you know insider information. Get to know fund managers well. They take positions to bring up the stocks and down at will, and they monitor their compeititors. Tech's? 3-4 yrs. And AMD vs INTC model, is the demand for the semi's really that low? Wait for the release of WinVista. This will bring up the demand for new computer upgrades for corporate computers. I don't follow the chip sector closely as I used to, but these are just common senses. What I want to stress here is, follow common sense and try to see the cyclical period of the markets and stocks. I tend to take position in tech and oil stocks in Oct Nov time frame, and I pull out about half in Jan/Feb, and again the rest in Mar/Apr time for tech's, and Apr/May for oil stocks. Tech's tend to spike after their conference show new product gala in January. (mostly telecom equipments) And the rest are just purely lucks through out the year. And 5% return overall avg is pretty good. Don't forget that that market prices set by speculative prediction based on assumption. One more thing to keep in mind is that the US interest rate is effected by the election year. The market now will continue the high for few more months, and will tumble. I'd say by May of next yr, the market will see the correction. Stocks are being overbought at alraming rate, and this trend cannot continue. |