| [ anonymous ] in KIDS 글 쓴 이(By): 아무개 (Who Knows ?) 날 짜 (Date): 2007년 10월 9일 화요일 오후 08시 41분 39초 제 목(Title): [G]블룸버그 벌써부터 제2IMF 예견하네.. 블룸버그 "이명박 공약, 거품억제 노력 무력화" http://kr.blog.yahoo.com/kansoo25/14886 Lee's Pledges Undercut Bank of Korea's Bubble Fight http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1k37w3cdRDA By Kim Kyoungwha Enlarge Image/Details Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A South Korean presidential election victory by favorite Lee Myung Bak may make central bank Governor Lee Seong Tae's job tougher. Pledges by former Seoul Mayor Lee Myung Bak, 66, to double the national income to $40,000 a head and lift the economy to seventh-largest in the world from 12th, in part by building a 550-kilometer canal running almost the length of the nation, would pump cash into the economy just as the central bank is attempting to manage asset bubbles in property and stock prices. Such steps -- buttressed by the new president's ability to appoint three members to the Bank of Korea's seven-man board in April -- may undermine Governor Lee's efforts to curtail soaring debt in order to avoid a repetition of the credit-card crisis that four years ago left one in 13 people unable to make repayments and tipped the economy into recession. ``The Bank of Korea has done a good job balancing growth and the risk to growth from asset bubbles,'' said Andy Xie, a former Morgan Stanley Asia chief economist. ``If the government forces it to loosen up, growth will pick up. But so will the bubbles.'' Lee Myung Bak, who has a 61 percent approval rating according to an August survey conducted by Chosun Ilbo and Gallup, leads the candidates to succeed President Roh Moo Hyun in the December election. Lee was dubbed ``the Bulldozer'' by corporate colleagues from his days as an executive at the construction arm of Hyundai Group. Lee held top posts at Hyundai Group affiliates, starting with Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co. in 1977. Seoul Project As mayor of Seoul for four years through May 2006, he renovated the heart of the capital city, reviving the Cheonggye Stream, a waterway that had been covered over with concrete for about 50 years. He reformed the public transportation system in the face of union opposition. Now, he wants to bring on the bulldozers on a national scale, championing a canal from Seoul's Han River to the Nakdong River as an economic growth engine. The project would create more than 300,000 jobs and new tourism sites, according to Kwak Seung Jun, an economics professor at Korea University in Seoul who advises Lee. The aim is ``a big leap forward in terms of economic growth,'' Kwak said. The plan to pump up growth contrasts with the focus of Governor Lee, 63, a 39-year veteran of the central bank, on curbing the money supply, stock and property bubbles and inflation. South Korea's Kospi index rose 0.1 percent to an all-time closing high of 2,014.13 in Seoul. The won fell 0.4 percent to 918.50 versus the dollar as of the 3 p.m. close in Seoul. Inflation Fighter In August, Lee cemented a reputation as the strictest inflation fighter in the Bank of Korea's 57-year history by raising the benchmark interest rate for a second straight month, the first-ever back-to-back increases. He has increased rates four times since taking the job in April 2006. That's helped to keep inflation beneath the central bank's target range of a 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent annual rate. In September, consumer prices rose 2.3 percent. A win by presidential candidate Lee may also lead to opposition within the central bank to the governor's approach, economists say. That's because the president's office makes appointments to the seven-member monetary policy board. ``A growth-oriented president may force the central bank to change its hawkish stance,'' said Kwon Young Sun, an economist with Lehman Brothers in Hong Kong. Record Debt Soaring property prices have left households with a record level of debt, the equivalent of almost 70 percent of gross domestic product, according to HSBC Global Research. Lending by commercial banks to households surged 3.4 trillion won ($3.6 billion) to 355.5 trillion won in August, the biggest increase since December 2006. Money-supply growth is ``stubbornly high'' and poses an inflation risk, according to a Bank of Korea board member quoted without being identified in the minutes of the central bank's August meeting. Failure to adequately control money supply would mean ``asset-price driven inflation, rising credit-quality risks, deteriorating bank profitability and instability in the financial system,'' says Joseph Lau, an economist with Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong. In 2003, the consequences of handing out cheap loans to consumers led the government to engineer a bailout package for the credit-card industry to safeguard the financial system and economic growth. The lesson is that ``bubble-led growth has terrible consequences in the long run,'' said economist Xie. To contact the reporter on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Seoul kkim19@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: October 9, 2007 03:12 EDT |