| [ SportsLeisure ] in KIDS 글 쓴 이(By): jpark (제이 박) 날 짜 (Date): 1994년06월23일(목) 04시15분42초 KDT 제 목(Title): WC94: Advancement probabilities From news group rec.sport.soccer; Here are the probabilities of advancement to the second round after these matches have been played: Sui-USA 1-1, Col-Rom 1-3 Cam-Swe 2-2, Bra-Rus 2-0 Bol-Ger 0-1, Kor-Spa 2-2, Ger-Spa 1-1 Bel-Mor 1-0, Hol-Sau 2-1 Ita-Ire 0-1, Mex-Nor 0-1 Arg-Gre 4-0, Bul-Nig 0-3 The calculations are based on the following assumptions: 1. The probability of a win, draw and a loss is equal in all the matches, i.e. [0.33 0.33 0.33]. 2. Goal difference is not considered. 3. All teams are ranked equal. Probability of advancement: Ger 0.9486 Nig, Ire, Nor, Arg, Bel, Hol 0.9012 Rom, Bra 0.8971 Sui, USA, Swe, Cam, Kor 0.6646 <----- Go Korea!!!! Spa 0.5947 Bol 0.4588 Rus, Col 0.4403 Mor, Sau, Ita, Mex, Bul, Gre 0.4321 Note that Brazil and Romania have slightly less probability of advancement than Nig, Ire, etc. since the other two teams in the group drew in their matches. |