| [ QuizWit ] in KIDS 글 쓴 이(By): outsider (하얀까마귀) 날 짜 (Date): 2002년 4월 6일 토요일 오전 09시 00분 46초 제 목(Title): 원래 문제..? Envelope Paradox" (p. 189). The paradox involves a simple game: There are two envelopes, one containing twice as much money as the other. You get to choose an envelope, open it, and then optionally trade it for the other. How often should you trade? Suppose the envelope you pick contains $100. There is an equal probability that the other envelope contains $50 or $200, so by trading you will lose $50 or gain $100. Clearly, the odds favor trading. But, you would have applied the same logic had you instead picked the other envelope first! Picking the other envelope *before* you open one of them doesn't change the probability of winning -- why should trading *after* you've opened one make a difference? ps. 그건 그렇고 용감하신 게스트가 한 분 등장했군요. -- @< //) `//<_ 하얀까마귀 |